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Who will the next Pope be?

Markets

  • Pietro Parolin

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $25.5K · Liquidity $5.1K

  • Luis Antonio Tagle

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $23.7K · Liquidity $6.4K

  • Peter Erdo

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $22.9K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • Pierbattista Pizzaballa

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $20.1K · Liquidity $3K

  • Fridolin Ambongo

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $19.3K · Liquidity $3.2K

  • Matteo Zuppi

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $17.5K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • Anders Arborelius

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $17.2K · Liquidity $4.2K

Resolution rules

If Pierbattista Pizzaballa becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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