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Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Markets

  • Kaja Kallas

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Ben Wallace

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $89.6

  • Alexander Stubb

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $242

  • Keir Starmer

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $342.2

  • Ursula von der Leyen

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $710.7 · Liquidity $116.8

  • Mette Frederiksen

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $694.5 · Liquidity $185.2

  • Petr Pavel

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $645.2 · Liquidity $70.3

  • Klaus Iohannis

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $369.4 · Liquidity $90

Resolution rules

If Klaus Iohannis formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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