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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

Markets

  • Peggy Flanagan

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $10.6K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • David Jolly

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $8.2K · Liquidity $5.3K

  • Tina Kotek

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $6.8K · Liquidity $2.2K

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $6.6K · Liquidity $2.8K

  • Angie Nixon

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $3K

  • Troy Jackson

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • Kathy Hochul

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Abdul El-Sayed

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $517.2

  • Chris Pappas

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $985.1 · Liquidity $508

Resolution rules

If Troy Jackson's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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