Best LLM at the end of the decade?
Markets
Essential AI
- Yes24%
- No76%
Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $285
Amazon
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $100
Google
- Yes29%
- No71%
Volume $412.1 · Liquidity $362.1
Anthropic
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $169.4 · Liquidity $112.2
xAI
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $51.3 · Liquidity $51.3
OpenAI
- Yes18%
- No82%
Volume $5.3 · Liquidity $5.3
Meta
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Alibaba
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
DeepSeek
- Yes4%
- No97%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Moonshot
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Z AI
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Xiaomi
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
StepFun
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
MiniMax
- Yes4%
- No97%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Mistral
- Yes4%
- No97%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
NVIDIA
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Baidu
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
ByteDance
- Yes3%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Thinking Machines
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
China Mobile
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Upstage
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Tencent
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
InclusionAI
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
LongCat
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Cohere
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Inception
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Arcee AI
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Microsoft
- Yes3%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Safe Superintelligence
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Reflection AI
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Prime Intellect
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Huawei
- Yes3%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
LG AI Research
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Institute of Foundation Models
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Resolution rules
If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Tech & Science markets
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
United States: 66%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030: 44%
24h vol $64 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
Next pandemic
Before 2030: 22%
24h vol $6.6 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
Z AI: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
Yes: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
No: 80%
24h vol $52.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Yes: 58%
24h vol $28.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
Before 2030: 67%
24h vol $19.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 23%
24h vol $97K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?
Before 2029: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States: 57%
24h vol $169.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2031