Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
Markets
China
- Yes27%
- No73%
Volume $401.5 · Liquidity $199
France
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $398 · Liquidity $199
South Korea
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $398 · Liquidity $199
United Arab Emirates
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $398 · Liquidity $199
United States
- Yes66%
- No34%
Volume $320.1 · Liquidity $229.3
Resolution rules
If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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