Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
Markets
Before 2027
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $3.5K
Before 2028
- Yes44%
- No56%
Volume $550.3 · Liquidity $451.4
Before 2029
- Yes64%
- No36%
Volume $541.2 · Liquidity $387.8
Before 2030
- Yes67%
- No33%
Volume $144.7 · Liquidity $144.7
Resolution rules
If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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