Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?
Citizens Only Voting Amendment: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
No: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?
No: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
California 13 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 108K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
No: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 30, 2036
New Hampshire 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?
No: 66%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?
No: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Arkansas 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Missouri's 5th District margin of victory
Democrats, 3+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Missouri's 4th District margin of victory
Republicans, 8+ pts: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will run for Louisiana Governor in 2027?
Jeff Landry: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 6, 2027
Next Canadian federal election winner?
Liberal Party: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 15, 2030
Alabama Lieutenant Governor winner?
John Wahl: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 9th District margin of victory
Smith, 36+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Greek general election winner?
New Democracy: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 30, 2028
NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?
Above $200 million: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 1, 2027
Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?
No: 77%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Rome mayoral election winner?
Center-left: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 12, 2028
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Naples mayoral election winner?
Center-left: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 12, 2028
Guatemala City mayoral election winner?
Roberto González: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 27, 2028
When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?
Before 2030: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?
Yes: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?
Yes: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 77%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed?
Before Sep 1, 2027: 29%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 16%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
Will John Thune run for reelection?
Yes: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 28, 2028
California 22 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 144K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 18 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 103K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 17 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 143K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
Who will DSA endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
No one: 45%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will an Atlantic Shores offshore wind lease be terminated?
No: 59%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?
Yes: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling?
Yes: 65%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Texas's 23rd District margin of victory
Stout, 1+ pts: 25%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 31%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Washington Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Tennessee 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027