Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Polk County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 56%: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 80K: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Linn County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 54%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Johnson County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 68%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 320K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 290K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 330K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 460K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 9th District margin of victory
Meuser, 20+ pts: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vote percent
At least 80%: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Queens County, New York: Kathy Hochul vote percent
At least 56%: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Palm Beach County, Florida: David Jolly vote percent
At least 48%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Miami-Dade County, Florida: Byron Donalds vote percent
At least 42%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 15th District margin of victory
Thompson, 23+ pts: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
Bola Tinubu: 20%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 35%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Meta ordered to pay $10 billion or more in child safety case?
No: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
When will Kimberly Greenwood be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Barbados?
Before Jun 1, 2027: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 1, 2027
New York's 4th District margin of victory
Gillen, 3+ pts: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 3rd District margin of victory
No: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 9th District margin of victory
Clarke, 38+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Hillsborough County, Florida: David Jolly vote percent
At least 48%: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?
Above 86,000: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Ghana parliamentary election winner?
NDC: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 7, 2029
Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?
Illinois: 81%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
No: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 14, 2028
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
R+0.9 to D+0.9: 29%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Danielle Smith announces departure as Alberta UCP leader?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 45%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28?
Above 4,000: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
Aderholt, 45+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
At least 44%: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas's 1st District margin of victory
Mann, 16+ pts: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Paul Wilson be retained on the Missouri Supreme Court?
Yes: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Vermont Governor margin of victory
Republicans, 2+ pts: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Utah 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
Smith, 1+ pts: 26%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next German federal election winner?
AfD: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 25, 2030
Yorkton-Melville by-election winner?
Conservative Party: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
Kentucky Democratic Governor nominee?
Rocky Adkins: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 17, 2028
Texas 35 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 141K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
East Timor presidential election winner?
José Ramos-Horta: 22%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 29, 2028
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie by-election winner?
Liberal: 53%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 12, 2028
Sapporo mayoral election winner?
Yu Arai: 43%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 10, 2028