Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
When will the Kennedy Center's main building reopen?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Hawaii Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 330K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?
CDU: 59%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?
Colorado House: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Philippine presidential election winner?
Sara Duterte: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 31, 2029
Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?
Yes: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?
Yes: 60%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 8, 2028
New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
No: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 6th District margin of victory
Cline, 3+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
No: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Oklahoma 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
Adam Telle: 41%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2030
Iowa 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 280K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Vermont at large House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 130K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ghana presidential election winner?
Asiedu Nketia: 33%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
When will Greenland call a snap election?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 14%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Iowa 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?
No: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Idaho 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham: 13%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
2028 Electoral College margin of victory?
Democratic by 91 to 130: 13%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 6, 2029
Kentucky 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas 34 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 137K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas 35 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 141K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?
At least 100,000: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Next German federal election winner?
AfD: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 25, 2030
Idaho Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 470K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)
Above $1M: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?
No: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Utah 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28?
Above 4,000: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
Danielle Smith announces departure as Alberta UCP leader?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 45%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?
Utah Senate: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Washington 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
No: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 14, 2028
Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?
Illinois: 81%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Washington 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 4th District margin of victory
McKinney, 2+ pts: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ghana parliamentary election winner?
NDC: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 7, 2029
Illinois 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027