Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
World Trade Organization: 24%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Baja California Governor winner?
Morena: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 6, 2028
New York's 26th District margin of victory
Kennedy, 20+ pts: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 22nd District margin of victory
Askar, 2+ pts: 25%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida 28 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 197K: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania 15 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Louise Lucas resign from the Virginia Senate?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 33%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Brigitte Macron win her defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens?
Yes: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
Before Oct 1, 2027: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Florida 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Paul Wilson be retained on the Missouri Supreme Court?
Yes: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory
Kelly, 3+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will win the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?
Aam Aadmi Party: 63%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 20, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?
Above 86,000: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Missouri's 5th District margin of victory
Republicans, 12+ pts: 6%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio's 3rd District margin of victory
Beatty, 34+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory
Lacore, 2+ pts: 19%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Los Angeles County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
At least 60%: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?
Before Mar 1, 2027: 60%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Will the Committee of Inquiry recommend Lisa Cook's removal?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Texas's 25th District margin of victory
Williams, 9+ pts: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 10 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 100K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia 13 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Jon Ossoff announce his presidential candidacy?
Before Oct 1, 2027: 22%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Florida 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 14th District margin of victory
Reschenthaler, 17+ pts: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 12th District margin of victory
Lee, 15+ pts: 78%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 11 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 11th District margin of victory
Scott Wiener, 1+ pts: 77%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Sarawak state election: GPS number of seats?
60 or more: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 26, 2027
California 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Connecticut 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 75K: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2033
Pennsylvania's 6th District margin of victory
Houlahan, 8+ pts: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next DCCC chair?
Brad Schneider: 14%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 9, 2027
Will Matthew McConaughey run for office before 2028?
No: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Florida 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 290K: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Palm Beach County, Florida: David Jolly vote percent
At least 48%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Colorado Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2M: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Turkish presidential election: first round winner?
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 63%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 7, 2029
Ohio's 13th District margin of victory
Sykes, 2+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Clark County, Nevada: Aaron Ford vote percent
At least 50%: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027