Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
California's 31st District margin of victory
Cisneros, 15+ pts: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will HART push back Skyline's 2031 opening date?
Yes: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 56%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
ROC recycle removal: 49%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
California's 26th District margin of victory
Irwin, 12+ pts: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal?
No: 58%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Michigan's 4th District margin of victory
McCann, 1+ pts: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington County, Ohio: Jon Husted vote percent
At least 56%: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 2nd District margin of victory
Moolenaar, 15+ pts: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 3rd District margin of victory
Bera, 5+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Montgomery County, Ohio: Sherrod Brown vote percent
At least 50%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Lucas County, Ohio: Sherrod Brown vote percent
At least 56%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Hamilton County, Ohio: Sherrod Brown vote percent
At least 58%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will win the next Greater Chennai Corporation election?
TVK: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2028
Texas's 18th District margin of victory
Menefee, 49+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine Governor margin of victory
No: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona's 6th District margin of victory
Mendoza, 1+ pts: 79%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Cuyahoga County, Ohio: Sherrod Brown vote percent
At least 66%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona's 4th District margin of victory
Stanton, 4+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory
Ansari, 57+ pts: 100%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)
Alexi Giannoulias: 79%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 23, 2028
Arizona's 1st District margin of victory
Shah, 1+ pts: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 21%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Wake County, North Carolina: Roy Cooper vote percent
At least 62%: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will win the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?
Aam Aadmi Party: 63%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 20, 2028
When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Maryland's 8th District margin of victory
Raskin, 50+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory
Westerman, 24+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland's 1st District margin of victory
Harris, 2+ pts: 69%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
Sewell, 12+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
World Trade Organization: 24%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
Palmer, 21+ pts: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 9th District margin of victory
McClain, 19+ pts: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wayne County, Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent
At least 62%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washtenaw County, Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent
At least 78%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Scott County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 48%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
Rogers, 27+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
Figures, 2+ pts: 18%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 50%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next Senate Democratic Leader?
Chuck Schumer: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2028
Polk County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 56%: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
At least 10: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 15, 2026
Linn County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 54%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?
Before Oct 1, 2027: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Johnson County, Iowa: Josh Turek vote percent
At least 68%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Gwinnett County, Georgia: Jon Ossoff vote percent (1st Round)
At least 58%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
Before Mar 1, 2027: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Massachusetts's 6th District margin of victory
Koh, 19+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027