Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
In what year will the next UK general election be held?
2029: 46%
24h vol $67.4 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 52%
24h vol $67.4 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Kenya United Opposition presidential flagbearer?
Kalonzo Musyoka: 47%
24h vol $67.1 · Ends Jul 12, 2027
Texas's 14th District margin of victory
Weber, 2+ pts: 96%
24h vol $66.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Utah?
Constitutional Amendment Publication: 73%
24h vol $63.6 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eisenkot: 57%
24h vol $62 · Ends Jan 1, 2045
Will Mamdani run for re-election?
Yes: 71%
24h vol $61.9 · Ends Apr 6, 2029
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ted Cruz: 88%
24h vol $61.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?
Bezalel Smotrich: 18%
24h vol $61 · Ends Oct 27, 2027
Michigan's 12th District margin of victory
Tlaib, 34+ pts: 96%
24h vol $61 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine's 1st District margin of victory
Pingree, 17+ pts: 91%
24h vol $60 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?
Chuck Grassley: 33%
24h vol $60 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?
Below 36%: 93%
24h vol $59.1 · Ends Jan 27, 2029
How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026?
At least 1: 39%
24h vol $57.5 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
No: 95%
24h vol $57.2 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Illinois Governor margin of victory
Pritzker, 6+ pts: 96%
24h vol $56.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Hampshire Governor winner?
Kelly Ayotte: 95%
24h vol $54.7 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Will West Virginia require voters to be U.S. and West Virginia citizens?
Yes: 93%
24h vol $54.2 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 78%
24h vol $54.1 · Ends Aug 22, 2028
California's 21st District margin of victory
Costa, 2+ pts: 94%
24h vol $54 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Putin and Zelenskyy meet?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 28%
24h vol $52.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
FTC investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?
No: 89%
24h vol $51 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2028 House winner
Democratic party: 71%
24h vol $50.3 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
New York's 7th District margin of victory
Valdez, 44+ pts: 94%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio's 2nd District margin of victory
Taylor, 24+ pts: 92%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 4th District margin of victory
Dean, 12+ pts: 87%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vote percent
At least 80%: 97%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 5.80M: 96%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory
Neguse, 34+ pts: 94%
24h vol $50 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 66%
24h vol $46.9 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Winnipeg mayoral election winner?
Scott Gillingham: 93%
24h vol $45.1 · Ends Oct 28, 2027
Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory
Democrats, 26+ pts: 95%
24h vol $45 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 13th District margin of victory
Luna, 1+ pts: 65%
24h vol $45 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas's 15th District margin of victory
Cruz, 7+ pts: 22%
24h vol $44.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?
No: 59%
24h vol $44 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
No: 86%
24h vol $43.7 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Texas 19 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 94%
24h vol $43 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 29%
24h vol $42.8 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
Who will run for president in 2028?
Andrew Yang: 78%
24h vol $42.6 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
2026: Trump's bad year?
No: 98%
24h vol $42.4 · Ends Dec 31, 2027
New Mexico Senate margin of victory
Luján, 13+ pts: 91%
24h vol $42 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
Shaheen, 1+ pts: 95%
24h vol $41 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 155K: 94%
24h vol $41 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
Marques, 2+ pts: 59%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nevada's 1st District margin of victory
Titus, 1+ pts: 86%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nevada's 4th District margin of victory
Horsford, 1+ pts: 92%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory
Brooks, 1+ pts: 78%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 7th District margin of victory
Vindman, 5+ pts: 84%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027