Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
New York's 15th District margin of victory
Torres, 52+ pts: 96%
24h vol $40 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
Yes: 78%
24h vol $38.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
North Carolina's 2nd District margin of victory
Ross, 28+ pts: 89%
24h vol $38 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
Pete Hegseth: 42%
24h vol $37.9 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?
0: 80%
24h vol $37.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Argentina presidential election: first round winner?
Javier Milei: 63%
24h vol $36 · Ends Oct 23, 2028
Georgia's 2nd District margin of victory
Bishop, 5+ pts: 92%
24h vol $36 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska's 2nd District margin of victory
Powell, 1+ pts: 92%
24h vol $35.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Hennepin County Attorney winner?
Anders Folk: 74%
24h vol $35.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
At least 1: 71%
24h vol $35.1 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Illinois's 8th District margin of victory
Bean, 3+ pts: 96%
24h vol $35 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 17th District margin of victory
Steube, 1+ pts: 96%
24h vol $35 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?
Itamar Ben-Gvir: 18%
24h vol $34.9 · Ends Oct 27, 2027
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
At least 9: 21%
24h vol $34.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Connecticut's 2nd District margin of victory
Courtney, 8+ pts: 97%
24h vol $34 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.70M: 97%
24h vol $34 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 9th District margin of victory
McClain, 19+ pts: 91%
24h vol $34 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
No: 91%
24h vol $33.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
No: 90%
24h vol $33.2 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
No: 99%
24h vol $31.4 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
1: 58%
24h vol $30.4 · Ends Oct 28, 2030
Nevada Governor margin of victory
Lombardo, 2+ pts: 21%
24h vol $30.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Oklahoma's 5th District margin of victory
Bice, 2+ pts: 84%
24h vol $30 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
Strong, 13+ pts: 90%
24h vol $30 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 4th District margin of victory
Mike Thompson, 1+ pts: 72%
24h vol $29.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 3.5M: 96%
24h vol $28.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 21st District margin of victory
Constantino, 1+ pts: 65%
24h vol $28.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 19th District margin of victory
Schwartzel, 8+ pts: 92%
24h vol $28 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?
Michael Malchieli: 11%
24h vol $27 · Ends Oct 27, 2027
When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
Before Aug 1, 2027: 47%
24h vol $26.1 · Ends Feb 1, 2028
Nebraska Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 620K: 90%
24h vol $26 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois's 13th District margin of victory
Budzinski, 9+ pts: 87%
24h vol $25 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 1st District margin of victory
Bergman, 1+ pts: 86%
24h vol $25 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Mississippi Governor winner? (2027)
Republican: 89%
24h vol $25 · Ends Nov 1, 2028
Estonia parliamentary election winner?
Isamaa: 46%
24h vol $25 · Ends Mar 6, 2028
Washington County, Ohio: Jon Husted vote percent
At least 56%: 97%
24h vol $25 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 10th District margin of victory
Subramanyam, 16+ pts: 79%
24h vol $25 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Travis County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 74%: 81%
24h vol $24.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?
Yes: 84%
24h vol $24.6 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham: 13%
24h vol $24.5 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Illinois's 7th District margin of victory
Ford, 56+ pts: 94%
24h vol $24 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory
Hill, 1+ pts: 79%
24h vol $23.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
No, ≥1%: 71%
24h vol $23 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Vermont Governor margin of victory
Republicans, 2+ pts: 72%
24h vol $23 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine Governor margin of victory
Pingree, 3+ pts: 90%
24h vol $22 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?
2: 38%
24h vol $21.8 · Ends Dec 15, 2026
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Samuel Alito: 63%
24h vol $21.6 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Which ballot measures will pass in North Dakota?
Constitutional Measure 2: 52%
24h vol $21.2 · Ends Nov 2, 2027