Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Maine Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 460K: 97%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 93%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 95%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 19 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 97%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
German presidential election winner?
Ilse Aigner: 54%
24h vol $100 · Ends Jan 30, 2028
Maryland's 1st District margin of victory
Schwartz, 2+ pts: 16%
24h vol $99 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
Kelly Morrison: 32%
24h vol $94.9 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
At least 1: 69%
24h vol $94.9 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
South Carolina's 6th District margin of victory
Clyburn, 19+ pts: 86%
24h vol $91.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
Above 30%: 86%
24h vol $90.8 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Hawaii Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 330K: 90%
24h vol $90.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 9th District margin of victory
Ojeda, 1+ pts: 24%
24h vol $90 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory
Brooks, 1+ pts: 78%
24h vol $90 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 3.70M: 96%
24h vol $87 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 6.5M: 89%
24h vol $83.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?
Narendra Modi: 47%
24h vol $82 · Ends Apr 30, 2030
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp: 86%
24h vol $82 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Missouri's 6th District margin of victory
Republicans, 15+ pts: 93%
24h vol $80 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory
Grothman, 2+ pts: 91%
24h vol $80 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Virginia require data centers to use clean energy?
No: 61%
24h vol $79 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
New York Democratic Senate nominee in 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 44%
24h vol $78.5 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Will Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons?
Yes: 88%
24h vol $78.5 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
When will CISA issue a new Emergency Directive?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 80%
24h vol $74.9 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in South Dakota?
Amendment J: 91%
24h vol $74.6 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
2: 68%
24h vol $73.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?
115 to 119.99 million: 30%
24h vol $70.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory
Cooke, 1+ pts: 78%
24h vol $69.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Supreme Court Place 2 winner?
James P. Sullivan: 88%
24h vol $69.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 49%
24h vol $68.3 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
Pete Buttigieg: 28%
24h vol $68.3 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory
Case, 30+ pts: 92%
24h vol $68 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
In what year will the next UK general election be held?
2029: 46%
24h vol $67.4 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 52%
24h vol $67.4 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Kenya United Opposition presidential flagbearer?
Kalonzo Musyoka: 47%
24h vol $67.1 · Ends Jul 12, 2027
Texas's 14th District margin of victory
Weber, 2+ pts: 96%
24h vol $66.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Utah?
Constitutional Amendment Publication: 73%
24h vol $63.6 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Nebraska Governor-Senate combo
Jim Pillen and Pete Ricketts win: 75%
24h vol $63.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eisenkot: 57%
24h vol $62 · Ends Jan 1, 2045
Will Mamdani run for re-election?
Yes: 71%
24h vol $61.9 · Ends Apr 6, 2029
Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?
Bezalel Smotrich: 18%
24h vol $61 · Ends Oct 27, 2027
Will West Virginia require voters to be U.S. and West Virginia citizens?
Yes: 97%
24h vol $60.8 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?
Below 36%: 93%
24h vol $59.1 · Ends Jan 27, 2029
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ted Cruz: 88%
24h vol $56.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
New Hampshire Governor winner?
Kelly Ayotte: 95%
24h vol $54.7 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
California's 21st District margin of victory
Costa, 2+ pts: 94%
24h vol $54 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?
Ballot Measure 3: 87%
24h vol $53.8 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
Glenn Jacobs: 38%
24h vol $53.6 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
FTC investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?
No: 89%
24h vol $51 · Ends Jan 1, 2027