Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Kansas's 4th District margin of victory
Estes, 5+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 24%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?
No: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
Hungary: 8%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Kentucky Senate margin of victory
Barr, 10+ pts: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
No: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Louisiana's 1st District margin of victory
Republicans, 20+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 5th District margin of victory
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction?
Yes: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?
U.S. Senator: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
No: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Ohio 14 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 5th District margin of victory
Baumgartner, 1+ pts: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will women get a bigger share of NCAA settlement back pay?
No: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Washington 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 7th District margin of victory
Jayapal, 65+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Missouri's 7th District margin of victory
Republicans, 25+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?
Above 110,000: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 7, 2027
Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?
Before 2034: 32%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2034
Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory
Berman, 1+ pts: 28%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
German presidential election winner?
Ilse Aigner: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 30, 2028
Gambian parliamentary election winner?
NPP: 58%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 10, 2028
Victorian state election winner?
Liberals and Nationals: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 28, 2027
New Mexico 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Hokkaido gubernatorial election winner?
Naomichi Suzuki: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 10, 2028
Michigan's 8th District margin of victory
No: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will the NHS decide to end its Palantir contract?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027?
Above 275 days: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Minnesota's 1st District margin of victory
Johnson, 1+ pts: 32%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Manhattan congestion-zone vehicle entries in 2026?
Above 170 million: 78%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2027
Will Poland enact a law easing its abortion ban?
No: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Minnesota's 8th District margin of victory
Stauber, 1+ pts: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Kanagawa gubernatorial election winner?
Yuji Kuroiwa: 42%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 10, 2028
Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?
No: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Tirana mayoral election winner?
Socialist Party: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 9, 2028
New York 19 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Benue State Governor winner?
APC: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 6, 2028
Delta State Governor winner?
APC: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 6, 2028
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
No other person: 41%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Italian Senate election winner?
Brothers of Italy: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 30, 2028
How many FY2027 continuing resolutions will become law?
At least 2: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Mississippi's 4th District margin of victory
Ezell, 25+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 10%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Wisconsin's 2nd District margin of victory
Pocan, 32+ pts: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027