Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Sapporo mayoral election winner?
Yu Arai: 43%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 10, 2028
Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 25, 2027
North Carolina's 4th District margin of victory
Foushee, 46+ pts: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 36 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 37 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 77K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 160K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie by-election winner?
Liberal: 53%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 12, 2028
California 43 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 115K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 29 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 87K: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 13 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 95K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 10th District margin of victory
Harrigan, 4+ pts: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 12th District margin of victory
Adams, 41+ pts: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Turkish general election winner?
AKP: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 7, 2029
East Timor presidential election winner?
José Ramos-Horta: 22%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 29, 2028
Brantford-Brant South by-election winner?
Conservative: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 2, 2028
Tucumán Governor winner?
PJ: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 9, 2028
California 44 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 113K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
No: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
California 45 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 120K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska's 1st District margin of victory
Flood, 1+ pts: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory
Smith, 36+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin's 4th District margin of victory
Moore, 43+ pts: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 46 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 125K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 11 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin's 5th District margin of victory
Fitzgerald, 9+ pts: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky Democratic Governor nominee?
Rocky Adkins: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 17, 2028
Pennsylvania 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Mexico's 1st District margin of victory
Stansbury, 11+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory
Vasquez, 1+ pts: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Dutch Provincial Elections winner?
PRO: 78%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 16, 2028
California 48 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nevada's 3rd District margin of victory
Lee, 1+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Webb County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 56%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 25th District margin of victory
Singer, 1+ pts: 14%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many N.Y.C. Groceries stores will open before 2029?
At least 1: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?
Hungary: 12%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Which data center ballot measures will pass?
Trenton, Ohio Issue 17: 51%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 26 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 6th District margin of victory
Meng, 10+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 26%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory
Grothman, 2+ pts: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Yorkton-Melville by-election winner?
Conservative Party: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
New York's 1st District margin of victory
Gallant, 3+ pts: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
Before Mar 1, 2027: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Illinois 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 18 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory
Balkcom, 2+ pts: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027