Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
New York Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 4.9M: 90%
24h vol $3.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
Above 30%: 86%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Texas's 12th District margin of victory
Goldman, 4+ pts: 94%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 21st District margin of victory
Gendebien, 1+ pts: 29%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will the debt limit be increased?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 91%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake?
Rand Paul: 60%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Colorado's 4th District margin of victory
Boebert, 2+ pts: 59%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Massachusetts Senate margin of victory
Markey, 21+ pts: 94%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 21%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
2028 Presidential matchup
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance: 13%
24h vol $2.7 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Which states will enact data center moratoriums before 2028?
California: 98%
24h vol $2.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Brigitte Macron win her defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens?
Yes: 55%
24h vol $2.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Arkansas Senate margin of victory
Cotton, 2+ pts: 87%
24h vol $2.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the Bay Area Regional Transit Measure pass?
Yes: 98%
24h vol $2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?
No: 52%
24h vol $2 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
Yes: 78%
24h vol $2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Midterms: Democratic share of white non-college vote?
Above 30%: 90%
24h vol $2 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Kenyan National Assembly winner?
Coalition including ODM: 46%
24h vol $2 · Ends Aug 30, 2028
Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 12%
24h vol $1.9 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Kenya Senate election winner?
Coalition including ODM: 55%
24h vol $1.5 · Ends Aug 30, 2028
Will the Trump family be pardoned?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $1.3 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?
Above 25,000: 91%
24h vol $1.2 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
New Hampshire Governor margin of victory
Ayotte, 2+ pts: 90%
24h vol $1.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
No: 88%
24h vol $1.2 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Utah Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 85%
24h vol $1.2 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Samuel Alito: 63%
24h vol $1.1 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Oregon's 5th District margin of victory
Bynum, 3+ pts: 92%
24h vol $1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID: 19%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
New York 21 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 94%
24h vol $1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?
No: 99%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Mississippi Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 530K: 97%
24h vol $1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next Senate Democratic Leader?
Chuck Schumer: 82%
24h vol $1 · Ends Dec 31, 2028
Connecticut's 3rd District margin of victory
DeLauro, 17+ pts: 83%
24h vol $1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
Mette Frederiksen: 27%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 8, 2099
Michigan's 7th District margin of victory
Barrett, 2+ pts: 18%
24h vol $1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next DNC Chair?
Martin O’Malley: 17%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 8, 2045
AfD in a German state government?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 95%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
Above 5%: 95%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
North Dakota margin of victory
Fedorchak, 18+ pts: 91%
24h vol $0.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?
6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals: 74%
24h vol $0.6 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Hasan Piker announce a run for public office?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 2%
24h vol $0.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 40%
24h vol $0.4 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Missouri approve HB 1’s congressional map?
No: 59%
24h vol $0.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?
Above 6%: 92%
24h vol $0.1 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Kansas's 4th District margin of victory
Estes, 5+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 5th District margin of victory
Baumgartner, 1+ pts: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky Senate margin of victory
Barr, 10+ pts: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Louisiana's 1st District margin of victory
Republicans, 20+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027