Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
First Circuit fully affirms Harvard funding ruling?
Yes: 66%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will any U.S. state change its name?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 6%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
New York's 24th District margin of victory
Tenney, 9+ pts: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
Pete Buttigieg: 28%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Montana Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 380K: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?
At least 1: 65%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 3, 2027
When will Canada and the EU begin association talks?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?
U.S. Senator: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
Mississippi's 3rd District margin of victory
Guest, 11+ pts: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?
Above 40%: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Louisiana's 5th District margin of victory
Republicans, 9+ pts: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?
Above 2%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 6, 2026
Tennessee 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Louisiana's 6th District margin of victory
Democrats, 31+ pts: 18%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?
Yes: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
North Carolina 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?
Republican party: 53%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 2, 2033
Tennessee 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Massachusetts's 1st District margin of victory
Neal, 12+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?
No: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
How many N.Y.C. Groceries stores will open before 2029?
At least 1: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?
Hungary: 12%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Tennessee 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey's 2nd District margin of victory
No: 79%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Massachusetts's 2nd District margin of victory
McGovern, 20+ pts: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
California 24 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 25 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 23 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 22 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 144K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 20 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
No: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Massachusetts's 3rd District margin of victory
Trahan, 19+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?
Yes: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
California 27 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 130K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 40th District margin of victory
Ken Calvert, 1+ pts: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tennessee 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 143K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 19 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 18 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 103K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 17 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 143K: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 14 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 80K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tennessee Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.6M: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Massachusetts's 4th District margin of victory
Auchincloss, 17+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027