Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
New York's 9th District margin of victory
Clarke, 38+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Belize City mayoral election winner?
PUP: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 2, 2028
Illinois 10 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 17 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa State Auditor winner?
Chris Cournoyer: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 3.30M: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 35%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 22%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Tennessee 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory
Grothman, 2+ pts: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
Bola Tinubu: 20%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
Illinois Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 3.30M: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 28%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Indiana 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Indiana 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Cape Verde presidential election winner?
PAICV: 81%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 15, 2027
Maryland 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 460K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 330K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 290K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 56%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Washington's 7th District margin of victory
Jayapal, 65+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 320K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
Nigel Farage: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2035
California's 22nd District margin of victory
Villegas, 1+ pts: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Minnesota 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
Kelly Morrison: 32%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?
No: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?
U.S. Senator: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
Minnesota 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 21%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
Mette Frederiksen: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2099
Will Chile and Bolivia restore ambassador-level relations?
Before 2028: 26%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Wisconsin 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will UC reinstate its SAT/ACT requirement before 2028?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Michigan 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 300K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 300K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan 11 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
At least 2%: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
No: 78%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Minnesota Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2M: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Poland general election winner?
Civic Coalition: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 10, 2028