Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Wyoming margin of victory
Gray, 25+ pts: 83%
24h vol $196 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory
Gottheimer, 4+ pts: 95%
24h vol $187 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
Increase 0.01-0.99%: 38%
24h vol $185 · Ends Jun 1, 2028
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
No: 66%
24h vol $183.4 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Mississauga mayoral election winner?
Bonnie Crombie: 47%
24h vol $167.6 · Ends Oct 26, 2027
Maine Governor-Senate combo
Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win: 64%
24h vol $167.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wisconsin Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 65%
24h vol $162.8 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Florida's 21st District margin of victory
Mast, 1+ pts: 80%
24h vol $160.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona's 1st District margin of victory
Shah, 1+ pts: 76%
24h vol $154.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
Yashar: 71%
24h vol $151.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?
8: 36%
24h vol $150 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 42 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 126K: 97%
24h vol $150 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Pennsylvania Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 4.00M: 90%
24h vol $149.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Attorneys General will Trump have?
2: 55%
24h vol $148 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
New York's 1st District margin of victory
LaLota, 1+ pts: 85%
24h vol $144 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which November Swiss referendums will pass?
Fireworks Initiative: 58%
24h vol $142.8 · Ends Nov 29, 2027
Louisiana Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.15M: 83%
24h vol $138.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
Before 2030: 38%
24h vol $133 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
South Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.40M: 87%
24h vol $130.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?
Amendment 3: 89%
24h vol $126.3 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Minnesota Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.20M: 95%
24h vol $124 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Colorado's 5th District margin of victory
Killin, 2+ pts: 23%
24h vol $120 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 5th District margin of victory
Foxx, 3+ pts: 83%
24h vol $120 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
EU loses a member before 2030?
No: 94%
24h vol $120 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Which G7 leader will leave office next?
Emmanuel Macron: 72%
24h vol $117.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2045
Ohio's 7th District margin of victory
Poindexter, 1+ pts: 88%
24h vol $117.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?
Ulrich Siegmund: 75%
24h vol $115.8 · Ends Oct 6, 2027
Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%: 88%
24h vol $114.9 · Ends Oct 25, 2027
North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
Murphy, 1+ pts: 72%
24h vol $114.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?
Yes: 73%
24h vol $113.6 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
J.D. Vance: 47%
24h vol $112.8 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 42%
24h vol $111.6 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Lima Mayor winner?
Rafael López Aliaga: 85%
24h vol $111.1 · Ends Oct 4, 2027
Midterms: Blue trickle?
Yes: 91%
24h vol $110.9 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Wisconsin Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.2M: 80%
24h vol $107.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?
1: 62%
24h vol $107.2 · Ends May 13, 2027
Florida Senate margin of victory
No: 92%
24h vol $107 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Denver: 48%
24h vol $106.5 · Ends Aug 7, 2028
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)
Yes: 70%
24h vol $105.4 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
North Carolina's 1st District margin of victory
Davis, 1+ pts: 62%
24h vol $105.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)
Yes, ≥1%: 28%
24h vol $105.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 56%: 94%
24h vol $104.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Taiwan Local Elections winner?
Kuomintang: 65%
24h vol $103.7 · Ends Nov 28, 2027
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
No: 80%
24h vol $101.9 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
At least 4: 67%
24h vol $101.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?
No: 81%
24h vol $100.8 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
California 19 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 97%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 12th District margin of victory
Jamie Joyce, 5+ pts: 3%
24h vol $100 · Ends Nov 3, 2027