Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Arizona Governor margin of victory
Biggs, 1+ pts: 10%
24h vol $250.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 96%
24h vol $247 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)
Democratic party: 59%
24h vol $244.1 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
Between 400 and 449: 21%
24h vol $240 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory
Republicans, 1+ pts: 69%
24h vol $227.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30, 2026?
James Talarico: 79%
24h vol $225.1 · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Tennessee Governor margin of victory
Blackburn, 3+ pts: 95%
24h vol $218.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
West Virginia Senate margin of victory
Capito, 28+ pts: 91%
24h vol $218.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.70M: 97%
24h vol $218 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas Senate margin of victory
Hamilton, 1+ pts: 32%
24h vol $217 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which jurisdictions will drop Flock before Feb 2027?
New Bedford, MA: 79%
24h vol $215.4 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
California 11 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 95%
24h vol $215 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wyoming Senate margin of victory
Hageman, 26+ pts: 91%
24h vol $215 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
Above 30: 21%
24h vol $214.2 · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
No: 94%
24h vol $214.1 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
California's 14th District margin of victory
Aisha Wahab, 1+ pts: 88%
24h vol $212.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory
Ager, 1+ pts: 59%
24h vol $211.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 4th District margin of victory
McCann, 1+ pts: 70%
24h vol $208.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa's 1st District margin of victory
Bohannan, 3+ pts: 76%
24h vol $208 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island Senate margin of victory
Reed, 17+ pts: 90%
24h vol $206 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 10: 96%
24h vol $205.7 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
South Carolina Senate margin of victory
Andrews, 1+ pts: 16%
24h vol $205.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas's 36th District margin of victory
Babin, 12+ pts: 99%
24h vol $205.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?
At least 8 mph: 91%
24h vol $205 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Alaska Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 92%
24h vol $204 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Lieutenant Governor winner?
Josh McLaurin: 65%
24h vol $203 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
Lorne Doerkson: 64%
24h vol $201.8 · Ends Jan 8, 2028
Arizona's 1st District margin of victory
Feely, 1+ pts: 25%
24h vol $201 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Gwinnett County, Georgia: Jon Ossoff vote percent (1st Round)
At least 58%: 89%
24h vol $201 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 115K: 95%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 97%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 52nd District margin of victory
Vargas, 18+ pts: 94%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Delaware Senate margin of victory
Democrats, 20+ pts: 100%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 92%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the second-highest ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30, 2026?
Abdul El-Sayed: 55%
24h vol $200 · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Ohio 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 97%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 10th District margin of victory
Strickland, 15+ pts: 90%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland's 1st District margin of victory
Harris, 2+ pts: 69%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 29%
24h vol $200 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Hidalgo County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 52%: 97%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Mississippi's 3rd District margin of victory
Guest, 11+ pts: 86%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Ohio vote to constitutionalize in-person voter ID?
Yes: 93%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Texas 28 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 119K: 91%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tennessee 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 95%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Jim Justice announce a West Virginia governor run?
Before Jan 29, 2028: 72%
24h vol $200 · Ends Jan 29, 2028
Virginia's 5th District margin of victory
Perriello, 3+ pts: 21%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 84%
24h vol $200 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wyoming margin of victory
Gray, 25+ pts: 83%
24h vol $196 · Ends Nov 3, 2027