Tech & Science Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi markets on AI, space, tech launches and scientific milestones.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic: 77%
24h vol $42.1 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $42 · Ends Jan 2, 2027
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 83%
24h vol $41.7 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
No: 75%
24h vol $33.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Yes: 58%
24h vol $28.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
Before 2028: 69%
24h vol $26 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Total space launches in October
Above 9: 98%
24h vol $20.3 · Ends Nov 2, 2026
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
Before 2030: 67%
24h vol $19.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
Before Jan 1, 2031: 51%
24h vol $15 · Ends Jan 1, 2032
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
Google: 29%
24h vol $13.6 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
Before July 2027: 88%
24h vol $11.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 285k: 99%
24h vol $10 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
Yes: 67%
24h vol $8 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $7.37: 99%
24h vol $6 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
No: 92%
24h vol $4.7 · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
Yes: 54%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
No: 90%
24h vol $1 · Ends Aug 1, 2099
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before 2028: 92%
24h vol $1 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?
Yes: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
Before 2028: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
Yes: 50%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Number of data centers in Virginia this year?
At least 680: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Number of data centers in Texas this year?
At least 540: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $1.46: 47%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of data centers in Ohio this year?
At least 265: 54%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Number of data centers in New York this year?
At least 136: 51%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $5.79: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $3.23: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of data centers in Georgia this year?
At least 280: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Number of data centers in Florida this year?
At least 112: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Number of data centers in Arizona this year?
At least 162: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Price of NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $1.39: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?
Before 2029: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch
Before Jan 1, 2028: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
Before Jul 1, 2028: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2028
Next pandemic
Before 2030: 22%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
Anthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026
Anthropic: 47%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Alibaba vs Xiaomi: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026
Alibaba: 49%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Before 2032: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2032
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
Before 2030: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2032
When will P vs NP be resolved?
Before 2030: 57%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2040
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
OpenAI: 85%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 2040: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2040
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
Before 2040: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2040
When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
Before 2040: 38%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2040
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?
Before 2035: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?
Before 2032: 49%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2032