World Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi markets on world events, weather, climate and health.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
2.5°C to 2.9°C: 56%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Aug 15, 2027
Will it rain in Ontario, California on Feb 27, 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Feb 28, 2027
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
At least 2000: 97%
24h vol $268.6 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
At least 2.5°C: 79%
24h vol $200 · Ends Apr 5, 2027
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Oil: 61%
24h vol $31.4 · Ends Dec 30, 2032
What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
At least 2.0°C: 86%
24h vol $23.7 · Ends Apr 5, 2027
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
At least 1: 60%
24h vol $22 · Ends Jun 29, 2027
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?
No: 63%
24h vol $2.7 · Ends Jan 1, 2033
India meets its 2030 climate goals?
Yes: 70%
24h vol $2.4 · Ends Dec 31, 2031
Will Trump make IVF free?
No: 91%
24h vol $1.1 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
No: 73%
24h vol $1 · Ends Dec 31, 2035
US meets its climate goals?
By 2030: 16%
24h vol $0.1 · Ends Dec 31, 2035
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?
No: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2050
EV market share in 2030?
Above 10%: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 1, 2030
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
No: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
EU has a new member before 2030?
Yes: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Yes: 66%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2050
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027?
Above 15 inches: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?
No: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2032
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
At least 440: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
No: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will Karl Bushby Finish His World Walk to Hull Before 2030?
Yes: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
Before 2029: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
No: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2028
Rain in Paris on Sep 3, 2027?
No: 60%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 4, 2027