Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory
Steil, 2+ pts: 53%
24h vol $11 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas's 2nd District margin of victory
Schmidt, 1+ pts: 84%
24h vol $10.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 16th District margin of victory
Gruters, 1+ pts: 72%
24h vol $10.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 7th District margin of victory
Elijah, 1+ pts: 68%
24h vol $10.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tarrant County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 50%: 98%
24h vol $10.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the US create a national AI regulator?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 72%
24h vol $10.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 62%
24h vol $10 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?
Ding Xuexiang: 23%
24h vol $10 · Ends Jan 1, 2045
Texas's 2nd District margin of victory
Toth, 2+ pts: 84%
24h vol $10 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland's 4th District margin of victory
Ivey, 64+ pts: 93%
24h vol $10 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Adamawa State Governor winner?
APC: 45%
24h vol $10 · Ends Feb 6, 2028
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 52%
24h vol $9.9 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
Tafoya, 3+ pts: 11%
24h vol $8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Missouri's 3rd District margin of victory
Republicans, 5+ pts: 93%
24h vol $8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 70%
24h vol $8 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?
No: 66%
24h vol $7.4 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Tom Tiffany vote percent
At least 50%: 97%
24h vol $7.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Pete Buttigieg announce his presidential candidacy?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 90%
24h vol $6 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory
Bronin, 22+ pts: 90%
24h vol $6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kentucky Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.27M: 94%
24h vol $6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
2028 South Carolina Democratic primary winner?
Kamala Harris: 27%
24h vol $6 · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Missouri's 1st District margin of victory
Democrats, 49+ pts: 96%
24h vol $5.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?
No: 88%
24h vol $5.6 · Ends Jan 29, 2045
South Carolina Governor margin of victory
Wilson, 1+ pts: 91%
24h vol $5.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?
No: 80%
24h vol $5 · Ends Jan 8, 2045
When will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 94%
24h vol $5 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Colorado Governor margin of victory
Weiser, 6+ pts: 95%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 37th District margin of victory
Sydney Kamlager-Dove, 5+ pts: 95%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 9th District margin of victory
Griffith, 21+ pts: 95%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Indiana 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 95%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Colorado Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.10M: 93%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
Palmer, 18+ pts: 85%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Massachusetts's 9th District margin of victory
Keating, 8+ pts: 96%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Colorado 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 290K: 87%
24h vol $5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
Before Apr 1, 2028: 55%
24h vol $4.9 · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
Rahm Emanuel: 35%
24h vol $4.6 · Ends Nov 1, 2028
Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?
Amendment 3: 85%
24h vol $4.4 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
New York City mayoral election winner?
Zohran Mamdani: 86%
24h vol $4.3 · Ends Nov 6, 2030
Florida's 1st District margin of victory
Patronis, 11+ pts: 96%
24h vol $4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 19%
24h vol $4 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
On Nov 16, 2026: 99%
24h vol $3.6 · Ends Nov 23, 2027
When will the Knesset approve a new government?
Before Feb 3, 2027: 76%
24h vol $3.4 · Ends Feb 3, 2027
Arizona Corporation Commission party breakdown?
2 Republicans: 85%
24h vol $3.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 4.9M: 90%
24h vol $3.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas's 12th District margin of victory
Goldman, 4+ pts: 94%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York's 21st District margin of victory
Gendebien, 1+ pts: 29%
24h vol $3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake?
Rand Paul: 60%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will the debt limit be increased?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 91%
24h vol $3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028