Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Democrats sweep: 69%
24h vol $3.2M · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Democratic Party: 92%
24h vol $1.7M · Ends Feb 1, 2027
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Jon Ossoff: 16%
24h vol $688.3K · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Texas Governor winner?
Greg Abbott: 68%
24h vol $585.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Democratic Party: 69%
24h vol $537.6K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
2028 Republican presidential nominee
J.D. Vance: 41%
24h vol $366.3K · Ends Nov 7, 2028
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Above 52: 39%
24h vol $350.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly: 19%
24h vol $255K · Ends Jan 27, 2029
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Below 193: 35%
24h vol $249.1K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
J.D. Vance: 21%
24h vol $172.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
48: 20%
24h vol $152.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
234-237: 17%
24h vol $141.5K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Below 53: 62%
24h vol $121.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Blue wave in 2026?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $106.5K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
James Talarico and Troy Jackson: 55%
24h vol $88.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
24h vol $78.6K · Ends Oct 27, 2027
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Democrats, 8 to 10%: 25%
24h vol $78.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Senate margin of victory
James Talarico, 1+ pts: 64%
24h vol $65.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Senate margin of victory
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts: 30%
24h vol $52.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Senate: Exact outcome
Talarico defeats Paxton: 64%
24h vol $51.8K · Ends Jan 3, 2028
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Yes: 59%
24h vol $48K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Texas Governor margin of victory
Abbott, 1+ pts: 64%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Taipei mayoral election winner?
Chiang Wan-an: 59%
24h vol $44.6K · Ends Nov 28, 2027
Texas Governor-Senate combo
Greg Abbott and James Talarico win: 37%
24h vol $39K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan Senate margin of victory
El-Sayed, 1+ pts: 64%
24h vol $38.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Senate margin of victory
Ossoff, 2+ pts: 93%
24h vol $31.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
No: 77%
24h vol $31.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Florida Senate margin of victory
Moody, 2+ pts: 92%
24h vol $30.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
Cooper, 1+ pts: 95%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tennessee Governor winner?
Marsha Blackburn: 94%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
South Carolina Senate margin of victory
Graham, 1+ pts: 77%
24h vol $24.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?
Trump +5 or more: 98%
24h vol $20.9K · Ends Dec 15, 2026
Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed?
Before 2030: 27%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Red wave in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $18.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 23, 2026?
James Talarico: 92%
24h vol $16.8K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Alabama Governor winner?
Tommy Tuberville: 95%
24h vol $16K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida Governor margin of victory
Donalds, 1+ pts: 79%
24h vol $14K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
Flanagan, 1+ pts: 83%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the second-highest ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 23, 2026?
Jon Ossoff: 50%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Mississippi Senate margin of victory
Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts: 85%
24h vol $11.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$0 / No Acquisition: 89%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 22, 2029
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Democratic Party: 72%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2028 Democratic VP nominee
Elissa Slotkin: 10%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Nov 7, 2028
Next French presidential election winner?
Marine Le Pen: 53%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends May 30, 2028
Maine Senate margin of victory
Jackson, 1+ pts: 59%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Governor margin of victory
Acton, 1+ pts: 77%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Governor-Senate combo
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win: 67%
24h vol $7.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Brown, 2+ pts: 61%
24h vol $7.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027